Seven Questions

Seven Questions

On June 24th, we woke to the news the Wagner Group rebelled against the Russian military and was marching on Moscow. Twelve hours later, it was all over. Peace at hand? More problems to come? Certainly we have ripples of instability, never a good thing in world affairs.

There’s nothing like a coup attempt to grab my attention before I’ve had my morning coffee. On that fateful Saturday, I watched with fascination as Prigozhin’s Wagner Group troops took over the Rostov Russian Military Headquarters and then started their march on Moscow. It appears they were within 120 miles of the capitol before the insurrection ended as suddenly as it began, and Belarus leader Lukashenko worked out a peace between Putin and Prigozhin.

Whoops…I Didn’t Really Mean It

The terms? Maybe, forgiveness for the troops, a safe passage of Prigozhin to Belarus, and no invasion of Moscow itself. Yea, a win-win for everyone – if you believe in fairytales. The “fog of war”, and the cloak around all things “Russia” makes it difficult to assess what is true, what is false, and what is somewhere in between. It will all play out over the next few months. What I know is there is now increased instability in the region, and the world. I’m not a big fan of instability. No sane person should be a fan of instability as we are now experiencing in Russia.

Will The Peace Last?

I am by no means a Russian expert, but I am a student of history. I also spent nearly a decade in the Army in Germany in the ‘80s waiting for them to attack us, and had the opportunity to learn a bit about them then as well. So, while I’m no expert, I do feel confident that I know more than about 95% of the talking heads on TV, and 99% more than all of those spouting off online.

Here are seven questions we don’t have the answers for. I waited this long after the putsch attempt to publish this blog in order for events to develop and perhaps answers become apparent to some of the questions. I don’t believe that has happened. The fog, and the world’s instability will remain until we have a better understanding of the answers. If someone on TV or online says they have the answers right now, you should immediately change your TV channel or go elsewhere online. They are probably lying.

1. Has Putin weakened? Between his failing attacks in Ukraine and this mini-coup, he looks like it, but looks can be deceiving. He is shrewd, and he is ruthless. I wouldn’t count him out just yet.

2. What WAS the agreement between Putin and Prigozhin? Is there wiggle room for both of them? Will they somehow be buddies after all is done? Or are they both out to kill each other?

3. A related question – How hard will Putin try to crush those who rose against him? Putin is not the forgiving type. In addition to settling up with Mr Prigozhin, he will certainly look at how easily the headquarters at Rostov fell. Was there complicity on the part of his generals there, or weakness? In either case, heads are likely to roll.

4. What about the Wagner troops? There are 25,000, give or take, wandering around Southwestern Russia, or in Ukraine with plenty of guns, tanks, and other weapons. They have served as the pointy end of the spear for the Russians in most of their attacks over the past year. If they are now peaceably subsumed into regular Russian units (as the Russian Army is trying to make happen), what happens to their effectiveness? What happens to the effectiveness of the units they are added to? And what happens if they don’t go quietly into the night?

5. What happens to the other Wagner Group troops scattered around the globe providing “security” and other services in places such as Sudan, Mali, Syria, the Central African Republic, Libya, Venezuela and Sri Lanka among others? Does Prigozhin continue to lead them, does someone else, or do they fade away?

6. How will this affect the war in Ukraine? If the Wagner Group is dissolved as a fighting force, what is the impact? Also, the other Russian troops in Ukraine have to know at least some of what has happened. How will they react?

7. How safe are Russia’s nuclear weapons? Are we confident they are managed and controlled in a secure fashion?

As I said, I’m not a big fan of instability, and right now, this situation provides plenty of it. Some people in this country would say ignore it, it’s not our problem. Others (I’m looking at you Majorie Taylor Greene) stupidly question whether the US was somehow behind the coup. Both of those courses are unwise. Any time there is instability in the world the ripples make their way in our direction, arriving sooner or later. The only question is whether the ripples fade away, or due to activities we can’t see below the surface, turn into a tsunami.

And don’t forget China lurking around out there as well. Their commentary was generally muted about these events. I believe they are a bigger longterm threat to us both militarily and economically. Having said that, I’m more concerned about an unstable Russia right now, than I am about a stable China.

Russian Command and Control

Russian Command and Control

Command and Control (C2), along with Command Centers, are phrases you might hear with regard to the Russians in Ukraine these days. In my military career, I worked all levels of C2 from Infantry Brigade to Presidential, and I can see that the Russians are shockingly missing, or ignoring some C2 fundamentals.

There are other reasons for Russia’s initial bad performance in the first 100+ days of this war as well – too broad of an initial attack, poor logistics and poor morale in a conscript army all come to mind. What I keep returning to is their lack of C2 fundamentals, which impacts everything else.

Command and Control is defined by the Defense Department in military speak as “the exercise of authority and direction by a properly designated commander over assigned and attached forces in the accomplishment of the mission.” What does it really mean? In lay-terms – having the necessary leadership, team and systems to successfully manage a battle or war.

I know a thing or two about C2. From 1979 to 1983 as a junior officer, I supported Command Centers and command and control elements for 2nd Brigade 3ID, the 3rd Infantry Division itself, and VII Corps in Germany. When I returned to Germany from 1985-89, I was involved in work supporting the United States Army HQ in Heidelberg, the US European Command Alternate Support Headquarters in England, and NATO Headquarters in Belgium. In the 1990s I was involved in classified Nuclear Command and Control elements and programs at the Pentagon, and for the White House. For twenty years, virtually all of my work was involved in Command Centers, along with Command and Control processes and systems.

A Personal History of Command and Control Related Assignments

There were several truths and common best practices at all of those levels. I’d like to highlight just a few, including mobility, multiple communications links, and independent and inspired leadership at all levels. The Russians have problems with all three of those concepts.

First, they appear to have forgotten that the closer your Command Center is to the front, the more mobile you must be. You can’t allow your Command and Control elements to stay in one place, otherwise they are identified and targeted. This is particularly true today with the availability of satellite imagery. The result of them ignoring this maxim? We have seen multiple Command Centers destroyed, and at least 12 Russian General Officers killed at those Command Centers. As a comparison, the US lost 40 General Officers in all of WWII and 12 GOs in the entire Vietnam war.

A few of the dead Russian General Officers

Next, your command and control centers need multiple communications elements and links, particularly systems which are bi-directional, not Omni-directional. Why is that? Well, for one thing, Omni-directional systems (think HF Radio as an example) are easily detectable by your enemy, and as a result easily targeted. Also, without multiple systems, if one system isn’t working, your messages don’t get through. How did the Russians try and solve this second problem? By using cell phones, which are, guess what? Easily detectable. Combine this problem with their lack of mobility, and the issues for C2 elements are compounded.

I think it is a third issue that is causing the greatest harm for them – their seeming inability to push Command and Control leadership to the lowest levels possible. In the US Army, we try to encourage resourcefulness and independent thinking at all levels of leadership, down to and including individual platoons and squads. It’s not that they act independent of each other, but if there is an issue, individual action, leadership and gumption are expected. With the Russian army, this doesn’t appear to be the case. Putin, or his henchmen, are managing all aspects of the war and they have little ingenuity or original battlefield thinking going on at any level.

In the US, I’ve watched C2 migrate to C3 (add communications), to C3I (add intelligence) to C4I (add computers), to C4ISR (add Surveillance and Reconnaissance), to C5ISR (add Cyber) and today, C6ISR (add Combat Systems). There are two important lessons here: First, The US Military, of course, always loves a growing acronym (kidding … 😉 …); and second, the true lesson is the US Military continues to adapt and improve. All of those additional letters added to the C2 acronym? They are ways we continue to improve and support the fundamentals of Command and Control. We view enhancements to Command and Control as force multipliers.

The Russians continue to press their attack and they are making progress in the East. I will not be surprised to see the Donbas region fall into their hands, and probably sooner rather than later. But it’s coming at a tremendous cost of lives and equipment to them. Currently, the Pentagon reports they have lost in excess of 20% of their fighting forces, including over 1,000 tanks. They have reverted to Russian WWII type tactics of leveling everything in their path as they approach an area. The areas they are “conquering” are reduced to rubble, and remember, these are the areas supposedly “friendly” to the Russians.

Putin, of course, doesn’t care about the loss of Russian manpower, or the destruction of Ukraine. He only wants a victory. When all is said and done, I don’t know that he will regret the lack of Command and Control fundamentals and force multipliers in his military structure, but the families of thousands of dead soldiers back home might.

Addendum:

  • To my West Point classmates and old military buddies, I realize this is an overly simplified version of Command and Control and what is going on in Ukraine. I’m sure there already are, or soon will be many complex studies and reviews of what is happening in Ukraine, and what problems the Russians are having. I also believe simplicity sometimes serves a purpose, and in this case, its relatively accurate.
  • Rick Steinke, a West Point classmate, retired Colonel, and Former Associate Dean at the George C Marshall Center in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, sent this note to me after I posted the blog: Well said, Max. I would also humbly add that you must exercise and train said C2, across a combined arms environment. This training must be honest in exposing problems and weaknesses. This approach is anathema to the Russian military. After all, generals and colonels might end up looking incompetent. Said another way, with their training approach it has always been better to LOOK competent than BE competent. At our National Training Center (three trips as BN/ BDE S-3)in the Mojave desert, after action reviews, brutal and transparent as they were, always made well-led units – and leaders – better.

Unity?

Unity?

Remember right after September 11th happened, when former President Clinton said “The attack on The Twin Towers was genius, and Osama bin Laden is pretty savvy.”? Yea, I don’t either, but that is exactly what Mr Trump is saying about Putin and the situation in Ukraine right now.

Still Buddies, Evidently…

I understand the difference between an attack on New York City and the Pentagon, and an attack on Kyiv. Also that those attacks are not equivalents. Having said that, Putin and Russia are an existential threat to the Western Alliance in general.

It is interesting to watch the current commentary coming from some on the right about Joe Biden and the situation in The Ukraine. I contrast it with America when September 11th happened.  No one blamed Bush.  Instead, as Americans, we unified behind him.  Remember those first couple of years after the attack?  We were all Americans, not Democrats or Republicans.

Twenty one years later? It appears to be all about politics.  

Mr. Trump, has tried to posit that this attack has taken place because Joe Biden is weak. In 2001, no one tried to say George W Bush was weak and that is why al-Qaeda attacked. Why? Because we united against a common enemy.

And it’s not just Mr Trump yapping away.

Tucker Carlson and his fawning over Putin has shown himself to be a good imitator of Charles Lindbergh and his love affair with Adolf Hitler before WWII. His whole speech about Putin never hurting him and never wronging him was great theater, but missed the mark and displayed a lack of understanding. Tucker, the former hawk, is also now a peace loving man – we don’t need to do anything in Ukraine according to him.

Former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo? He and I are both alumni of the same institution (West Point), but that is about all we have in common. He too has praised Putin: “Putin is very shrewd. Very capable… I have enormous respect for him”. He has since walked back his comments, but the damage was done.

Russian State TV is showing video clips of both Pompeo and Carlson praising Putin and using it for reinforcing the invasion of Ukraine. There’s some good Americana for you.

Nothing says love for America, like helping out the Russians

Yes, McConnell, Graham and others have condemned Putin and provided some supporting comments for President Biden. Unfortunately, Hawley, Cruz, Vance and the rest of Trump’s BoyToys continue to whine and try and have it both ways. I wonder if Senator Cruz would modify his stance some if the Russians tried to help Mexico reclaim Texas? Texas belonged to Mexico after all, and I’m sure there are a few Texans who would rather belong to Mexico.

Abe Lincoln was right. “A house divided against itself cannot stand.” When we cannot unite against a common enemy, I fear for the future of our country.

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Addendum:

– Special thanks to my good friend, Tim Stouffer, who made several contributions to this blog.